China surpasses U.S. in nuclear submarine production with 10 boats launched in five years.

According to new data, China launched 10 nuclear-powered submarines totaling 79,000 tons between 2021 and 2025, exceeding US output in both number and displacement.

On February 16, 2026, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) stated that China launched 10 nuclear-powered submarines totaling 79,000 tons between 2021 and 2025, exceeding US output in both number and displacement. Satellite imagery and industrial data indicate that the expansion includes Type 094 ballistic missile and Type 093B guided-missile submarines built at Huludao. The production rate matches the US Navy’s planned 1+2 annual submarine target set for 2028, whose own submarine production continues to face workforce and maintenance constraints.
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China reached a 1+2 annual nuclear submarine production rhythm in 2024–2025, matching the U.S. Navy’s planned one ballistic and two attack submarines per year target for 2028. (Picture source: US Navy and 战情解码君)

The IISS outlined the acceleration of China’s nuclear-powered submarine production between 2021 and 2025, showing that Beijing surpassed the United States in both the number of boats launched and total displacement during that period. China launched 10 nuclear-powered submarines totaling 79,000 tonnes, while the United States launched seven boats totaling 55,000 tonnes. This marked a reversal of the 2016 to 2020 period, when China launched three submarines displacing 23,000 tonnes compared with seven US boats displacing 55,500 tonnes. The increase followed a prior decade, 2011 to 2020, during which China launched seven nuclear-powered submarines in total. The recent output includes ballistic-missile and guided-missile variants and coincides with the expansion of submarine construction infrastructure at Huludao. The higher tempo places China at a launch rhythm comparable to the US Navy’s stated objective of delivering one ballistic-missile submarine and two attack submarines per year by 2028.

China’s nuclear submarines are constructed by Bohai Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Co. at Huludao in Liaoning province, where production capacity increased between 2019 and 2022 with the addition of a second submarine construction hall and supporting facilities. Early 2026 imagery showed six Type 094 ballistic missile submarine hulls distributed across Huludao, the 1st Submarine Base at Jianggezhuang, the Xiaopingdao test facility, and the 2nd Submarine Base at Yalong Bay on Hainan Island. Accounting for submarines on patrol or under refit, a seventh Type 094 was launched in 2024 and an eighth in 2025. These additions expand China’s sea-based nuclear deterrent as part of its nuclear triad alongside land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles and strategic bombers. As of early 2025, China operated 12 nuclear-powered submarines, consisting of six ballistic missile units and six guided-missile or attack submarines. In addition, it maintained 46 conventionally powered submarines, while the United States operated an all-nuclear submarine fleet.

Now recognized by U.S. officials as China’s first credible naval nuclear deterrent, the Type 094 Jin-class submarine measures 137 meters in length with a beam of 11.8 meters and a submerged displacement of 11,000 tons. It is powered by a pressurized water reactor driving a single shaft and achieves submerged speeds exceeding 20 knots, with endurance limited primarily by crew and maintenance factors. Each boat carries 12 submarine-launched ballistic missiles, initially the JL-2 with a range of 7,200 km and more recently the JL-3 with a range exceeding 10,000 km, enabling coverage of the western continental United States from patrol areas in the South China Sea. Armament also includes six 533 mm torpedo tubes for self-defense against surface and subsurface threats. The sonar suite incorporates a bow-mounted sonar and the H/SQC-207 flank array system for passive and active detection. Acoustic performance remains a constraint, with noise levels previously assessed as higher than those of late Cold War Soviet submarines, limiting patrol areas primarily to protected waters.

Parallel to the ballistic missile submarine fleet expansion, China has increased output of the Type 093B Shang III nuclear-powered guided-missile submarine, an improved variant of the earlier Type 093A built in the 2010s. The first Type 093B was completed in April and May 2022, followed by five additional hulls by the end of 2024, at least two more in 2025, and a likely ninth boat in early 2026, indicating a sustained production rate of two per year. The Type 093B incorporates a vertical launch system with 12 cells, expanding missile options beyond torpedo-launched weapons. These cells are expected to carry high-speed anti-ship missiles displayed during China’s Victory Day parade in September 2025, aligning with a focus on naval combat operations in the Western Pacific rather than long-range land-attack missions. In February 2026, a larger new guided-missile submarine design was launched at Huludao, and fitting-out activity consistent with the next-generation Type 095 nuclear-powered attack submarine was observed on February 9, 2026. A future Type 096 ballistic-missile submarine is expected to enter production later this decade, potentially carrying 16 to 24 submarine-launched ballistic missiles with further acoustic improvements.

In 2023, the US Navy set a target of achieving a “1+2” annual production rhythm by 2028, consisting of one Columbia-class ballistic-missile submarine and two Virginia-class attack submarines. If China launched one Type 094 and two Type 093B submarines in both 2024 and 2025, it achieved an equivalent 1+2 output in those years. US submarines are larger and incorporate more complex systems, which increases construction time and workforce requirements. The United States currently operates 65 submarines, including 14 ballistic-missile boats and 51 attack or guided-missile submarines. The Columbia-class program aims to replace the 14 Ohio-class ballistic-missile submarines, with the first-in-class, USS District of Columbia, now expected for delivery in 2028. The US Navy fields no conventionally powered submarines, unlike China’s mixed fleet composition.

US submarine production faces structural constraints linked to workforce shortages, supply chain strain, and maintenance backlogs. Virginia-class submarines have been delivered at a rate of 1.2 to 1.3 per year since 2022, below the target of two per year. The industrial base involves more than 4,000 suppliers and requires about 9 million labor hours per vessel, while a 25% staffing shortfall was recorded in 2022. About one-third of the US attack submarine fleet is unavailable at any given time due to maintenance or drydock periods, reducing operational availability. Projections indicate the attack submarine force could decline from 50 to 47 boats by 2030 as Los Angeles-class submarines retire faster than replacements enter service. The AUKUS agreement also commits the United States to transfer three to five Virginia-class submarines to Australia in the early 2030s, adding pressure to production schedules. To mitigate these constraints, more than $5 billion has been allocated to strengthen the supply chain and workforce development, with a goal of increasing the production to 2.33 submarines per year by the late 2020s.

The broader naval balance in the Indo-Pacific reflects both quantitative and qualitative factors. China’s navy operates more than 370 battle force ships and is projected to reach 435 by 2030, while US fleet plans continue to face schedule and cost pressures. Chinese submarines, including the Type-093 and Type-094 classes, have undergone incremental improvements but retain hull designs that limit acoustic reductions compared with US and European counterparts. Deployment patterns for Type-094 submarines concentrate on the South China Sea, where layered maritime and air defenses provide protection. The introduction of the JL-3 missile extends strike range without requiring patrols deep into the Pacific. The expected introduction of the Type 096 later in the decade and the ongoing construction of Type 095 attack submarines signal continued emphasis on undersea modernization. The combined effect of higher launch rates, infrastructure expansion at Huludao, and steady class development is reshaping the pace and scale of China’s nuclear submarine force growth relative to the United States.

Written by Jérôme Brahy

Jérôme Brahy is a defense analyst and documentalist at Army Recognition. He specializes in naval modernization, aviation, drones, armored vehicles, and artillery, with a focus on strategic developments in the United States, China, Ukraine, Russia, Türkiye, and Belgium. His analyses go beyond the facts, providing context, identifying key actors, and explaining why defense news matters on a global scale.