Breaking News: Türkiye to Double Defence Spending in 10 Years Reaching 5% of GDP to Power Major Strategic Projects.

On June 25, 2025, Türkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced that national defence spending will rise to 5% of GDP by 2035, more than double its current level. Speaking at the NATO Leaders’ Summit in The Hague, Erdoğan confirmed that this financial surge will be funded entirely through the national budget. The plan reflects Türkiye’s ambition to enhance its strategic autonomy and expand its influence within NATO. This announcement signals the start of a new era for Türkiye’s military-industrial ecosystem and geopolitical posture.
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Türkiye’s decision to double its military expenditure over the next decade is not simply about capacity-building, it is a strategic recalibration (Picture source: TAI)

President Erdoğan’s statement comes at a time when Türkiye is already climbing the defence expenditure rankings. According to NATO, the country currently spends 2.09% of its GDP on defence, approximately $19.4 billion in 2024, while SIPRI estimates place it slightly lower at 1.9%. Reaching 5% by 2035 would more than double these figures, projecting annual defence spending beyond $45 billion if GDP remains stable. This trajectory builds on a 110% increase in real terms over the past decade and reinforces a policy trend: Ankara's deepening commitment to indigenously developed military systems and long-term strategic planning.

Türkiye’s ability to rapidly move from concept to deployment has already been demonstrated through platforms like the Bayraktar TB2 and Akıncı drones, the Altay main battle tank, and the MILGEM-class warships. These programs were led by national firms such as Baykar, Aselsan, Roketsan, and Havelsan, companies that are now likely to receive significantly larger state-backed contracts. With a vastly expanded budget, Türkiye will be able to initiate more complex and capital-intensive programmes, including fifth- and sixth-generation combat aircraft, integrated air defence systems, ballistic missile development, and space-oriented military capabilities.

This projected increase in defence spending will have significant strategic effects. Militarily, Türkiye will enter the top tier of NATO defence contributors, reducing its reliance on imported systems while modernizing its armed forces across domains. Geopolitically, it strengthens Türkiye’s autonomy and influence, particularly in contested theatres like the Eastern Mediterranean, the Black Sea, the South Caucasus, and the Red Sea. A 5% GDP allocation also represents a challenge to European allies, many of whom remain below NATO’s 2% threshold, and positions Türkiye as an indispensable actor in both regional security and NATO’s future posture.

Türkiye’s decision to double its military expenditure over the next decade is not simply about capacity-building, it is a strategic recalibration. By investing heavily in its domestic industry and technological base, Türkiye aims to shift from being a strong regional power to becoming a central pillar of NATO’s collective defence. This development will reshape alliances, supply chains, and strategic calculations for years to come.