Iran's Buried Pickaxe Mountain Challenges US Bunker Buster Bombs as Trump Weighs Further Strikes.

The United States and Israel are considering renewed military strikes against Iran as Washington identifies remaining nuclear-related targets and Tehran warns that another offensive could trigger retaliation across the Middle East. The deeply buried Pickaxe Mountain complex near Natanz has become a central concern for American and Israeli military planners, raising questions about whether conventional airpower can neutralize Iran's remaining strategic capabilities.

A U.S. Air Force B-2 Spirit stealth bomber and a GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bunker-buster bomb (inset), illustrating the conventional strike capabilities available to target Iran's deeply buried Pickaxe Mountain nuclear complex near Natanz. (Picture source: U.S. Air Force)

The prospect of another confrontation comes as American and Israeli forces assess the results of previous operations against Iranian nuclear infrastructure, ballistic missile installations and air defense networks. Although earlier strikes damaged several facilities and weakened Iran's conventional military capabilities, Tehran retains underground installations and dispersed missile forces capable of sustaining attacks across the region. These surviving assets complicate Washington's objective of achieving military results without entering another prolonged conflict.

On October 31, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that American forces still had one or two targets to address in Iran, specifically identifying the underground Pickaxe Mountain complex near Natanz. Trump suggested that additional strikes could be conducted quickly, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio clarified that no final decision had been made and that Washington remained open to a diplomatic solution. Tehran responded by warning that any renewed offensive would trigger immediate retaliation.

On November 2, American commentator Tucker Carlson claimed on X that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was pressing Trump to authorize a nuclear strike against Pickaxe Mountain. Carlson argued that approximately 300 feet, or 91 meters, of granite protected the underground tunnels, placing them beyond the reach of conventional American weapons. He suggested that a decision could come by November 7. However, these allegations remain unverified, and neither Washington nor Israel has confirmed that nuclear weapons are under consideration.

Pickaxe Mountain Raises Questions About Conventional and Nuclear Weapons

Pickaxe Mountain, also known as Kolang Gaz La, is located near Iran's Natanz nuclear complex. Satellite imagery assessments suggest that its underground installations may be protected by approximately 80 to 100 meters of rock, although their exact depth and configuration remain unknown. Israeli intelligence reportedly believes enrichment equipment has been moved into the complex, but there is no independent confirmation that uranium enrichment is taking place inside the mountain.

The principal American conventional weapon for attacking deeply buried targets is the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a GPS-guided bomb weighing approximately 13,600 kilograms. Delivered by the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber, it carries a penetrating warhead designed to damage hardened underground installations. American forces previously employed this weapon against Iranian nuclear facilities during Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025, although its effectiveness against the deeper sections of Pickaxe Mountain remains uncertain.

The United States also possesses nuclear weapons developed for hardened underground targets, including the B61-11 earth-penetrating gravity bomb. Delivered by aircraft rather than an intercontinental ballistic missile, the B61-11 is designed to penetrate the ground before detonation, transmitting destructive shock waves through the surrounding material. Its existence does not establish that such a weapon is being considered against Iran.

Other scenarios discussed publicly include conventional attacks against supporting infrastructure and speculative options involving ground operations or ballistic missiles. Israel's Jericho missile family is associated with its strategic deterrent, but there is no verified indication of preparations to employ such weapons against Pickaxe Mountain.

Despite Carlson's allegations, Trump has repeatedly expressed opposition to using nuclear weapons against Iran, arguing that conventional military capabilities remain sufficient. His previous statements contrast with suggestions that Washington is preparing an imminent nuclear attack, although they do not constitute a formal guarantee concerning future military decisions.

Iran Retains Missiles and Drones Despite Previous Air Campaigns

Iran's surviving military capabilities present another challenge. Despite repeated American and Israeli strikes, Tehran has demonstrated its ability to maintain ballistic missile launches, deploy one-way attack drones and employ loitering munitions against regional targets. Its forces have increasingly dispersed launch units across multiple locations, using underground shelters, mobile launchers and smaller, more frequent salvos to complicate detection. Even after suffering extensive losses, Iran has shown that it can continue launching attacks rather than relying on a single concentrated response.

Israeli F-35I Adir fighters and American combat aircraft could again suppress Iranian radar networks and surface-to-air missile systems, enabling subsequent strikes by F-15 and F-16 fighters. However, air superiority does not automatically eliminate mobile launchers, concealed missile stocks or unmanned systems that can be launched from dispersed positions. Iran could therefore continue attacking Israel, American installations and Gulf infrastructure while threatening commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The ability to withstand such retaliation is becoming an equally important concern for Washington. Previous fighting has consumed large quantities of American Patriot PAC-3 and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors. A July assessment by the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated remaining U.S. inventories at fewer than 1,000 Patriot interceptors and approximately 250 THAAD missiles, with replenishment potentially requiring several years. Another sustained Iranian missile and drone campaign would place additional pressure on these stocks, forcing American and allied commanders to prioritize defended assets while preserving sufficient ammunition for other theaters, including Europe and the Indo-Pacific.

Nuclear Escalation Would Carry Consequences Far Beyond Iran

A renewed conventional offensive could further weaken Iran's military infrastructure without necessarily eliminating its capacity for retaliation. Nuclear use, however, would carry consequences extending far beyond the Middle East. An American nuclear strike would break the decades-long precedent against the wartime use of such weapons and could influence the calculations of other nuclear powers, particularly Russia in its war against Ukraine. Moscow could seek to exploit an American precedent to justify more aggressive nuclear threats against Ukraine or NATO, further undermining international restraint. For European countries already confronting Russian nuclear intimidation, such a development would introduce another dangerous uncertainty into their security calculations. The consequences would extend well beyond the immediate military objective, making any move toward nuclear escalation a potential turning point for international security.

Written By Erwan Halna du Fretay - Defense Analyst, Army Recognition Group
Erwan Halna du Fretay holds a Master’s degree in International Relations and has experience studying conflicts and global arms transfers. His research interests include security and strategic studies, particularly the dynamics of the defense industry, the evolution of military technologies, and the strategic transformation of armed forces.

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