Analysis: US Drone Policy Reform Confronts Chinese UAV Influence and Reinforces Allied Defense.

Since 2017, Washington has pushed to soften the MTCR restrictions on Category I drones. That effort is now fully visible: in September 2025, the State Department confirmed that requests to export long-range drones would be evaluated under the same framework used for fighter aircraft. The message is clear: support the U.S. defense industry while responding to China’s growing role in the armed UAV market.
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A US MQ-9 Reaper (top) and a Chinese Wing Loong I (bottom), two competing armed UAVs symbolizing the growing rivalry between Washington and Beijing in the global drone export market. (Picture source: General Atomics/ Vitaly V.Kuzmin )

The MTCR, created in 1987, had long placed long-range armed drones in a category where exports were almost impossible. In 2020, the United States began to carve out exceptions by reclassifying slower drones, those flying under 800 km/h, as Category II. The Trump administration carried this further in 2025, ending the automatic presumption of denial. Platforms such as the MQ-9 Reaper can now be considered for export on strategic and political grounds rather than being blocked outright.

The systems concerned are well known. The MQ-9 Reaper, built by General Atomics, has become the emblem of this new export policy. With 27 hours of endurance, a ceiling of 15,000 meters, and the ability to carry over 1,700 kilograms of weapons, from Hellfire missiles to laser-guided bombs and JDAMs, it represents the backbone of U.S. armed drone exports. The MQ-1C Gray Eagle, used by the U.S. Army, offers similar endurance but with a lighter payload, designed for battlefield surveillance and support. The unarmed RQ-4 Global Hawk, with more than 30 hours of endurance and a range of 12,000 kilometers, remains vital for strategic intelligence. The MQ-25 Stingray, meanwhile, is being introduced by the U.S. Navy as a carrier-based refueling drone with additional ISR capabilities.

Among these, the Reaper dominates export discussions. It has already been integrated into the air forces of France, Italy, the United Kingdom, Belgium, and Germany, mainly for overseas missions where persistent surveillance and precision strikes are required. Japan has purchased Reapers for maritime monitoring in the East China Sea. India and Australia are negotiating possible acquisitions, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE have shown interest for years, though these sales remain politically sensitive. U.S. exports remain subject to conditions, including strict end-use monitoring, non-reexport commitments, and limits on weapon configurations.

China has exploited the gaps created by these restrictions. Not being a member of the MTCR, Beijing faces none of its limitations. Its manufacturers have seized the opportunity with the Wing Loong and CH series, now recognized as the pillars of China’s drone industry. The Wing Loong II offers better endurance and payload than the first version, while the Wing Loong III, still in early deployment, is promoted with 40 hours of endurance and a range up to 10,000 kilometers, placing it in direct competition with the Reaper. The CH-4, widely exported, has become the go-to option for states seeking rapid access to armed UAVs at a fraction of the cost.

China’s success is based on three factors. First, price: Chinese drones are much cheaper, allowing countries with smaller budgets to acquire them. Second, speed: deliveries are faster, and financing is easier, unlike the long approval cycles of U.S. sales. Third, politics: Beijing imposes few, if any, political conditions on buyers. This mix has proven attractive in the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia. Buyers include Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Pakistan, Iraq, and Algeria. Several African states have also acquired Wing Loong II or CH-4 drones, which have been used in conflicts such as Yemen and Libya.

The contrast between the two models is striking. The United States insists on reliability, NATO interoperability, and controlled transfers. China emphasizes affordability, availability, and freedom from conditions. Washington still holds a qualitative advantage, but Beijing is building a dominant position in terms of numbers. For many Global South states, the choice is clear: faster, cheaper, and politically uncomplicated drones from China. The result could weaken Western-led standards and influence in UAV operations.

For NATO and the Indo-Pacific, the stakes are immediate. The U.S. export reform is designed to fill gaps for European allies, many of whom must wait for long-delayed programs such as the Eurodrone. Germany and France, while committed to that project, continue to rely on the Reaper for pressing needs. The United Kingdom has chosen the Protector RG1, a Reaper derivative, for the same reasons. In Asia, Japan is already deploying Reapers to enhance maritime surveillance. India and Australia view their potential acquisitions as both a tool against Chinese expansion and a signal of closer alignment with Washington.

In practice, the reform underlines a simple hierarchy: safeguarding U.S. industry and reinforcing alliances takes precedence over the strictest interpretation of multilateral norms. Safeguards remain, end-use monitoring and political conditions, but their strength will depend on enforcement. In the short term, Washington consolidates its influence and provides allies with the capabilities they need. In the longer term, the competition with China becomes structural. The U.S. model of tightly controlled, interoperable systems faces off against China’s model of rapid and unconditional sales. This rivalry is reshaping the global armed drone market, and the decisive factor may well be numbers rather than quality.

Written By Erwan Halna du Fretay - Defense Analyst, Army Recognition Group
Erwan Halna du Fretay is a graduate of a Master’s degree in International Relations and has experience in the study of conflicts and global arms transfers. His research interests lie in security and strategic studies, particularly the dynamics of the defense industry, the evolution of military technologies, and the strategic transformation of armed forces, with a strong focus on multilateral cooperation and geopolitics.