Australia Nears Strategic Frigate Deal: Why the Japan-Germany Choice Matters.

The Albanese government is close to making its most consequential defence decision since taking office in 2022, as it prepares to select the builder for the Royal Australian Navy’s new fleet of frigates, a program valued at $10 billion. According to The Australian, the National Security Committee of Cabinet is expected to announce within days its choice between Japan’s Mogami-class frigate, offered by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, and Germany’s MEKO A-200, proposed by Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems, following eight months of detailed evaluations by the Department of Defence.
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The Japanese design appears to be the front-runner: it is more recent, more heavily armed, and carries political significance given Australia’s past decision to exclude Japan from a major submarine contract in 2016 (Picture source: Japan MoD)

The Japanese design appears to be the front-runner: it is more recent, more heavily armed, and carries political significance given Australia’s past decision to exclude Japan from a major submarine contract in 2016. Derived from the 30DX program, the Mogami-class has a full-load displacement of 5,500 tonnes, a maximum speed of 30 knots, and uses CODAG propulsion, combining a Rolls-Royce MT30 gas turbine with two MAN diesel engines. Its armament includes a 127 mm Mk 45 naval gun, eight Type 17 anti-ship missiles, a SeaRAM system, Type 12 torpedoes, and provisions for 16 vertical launch cells (VLS Mk 41) in retrofitted versions. It can also operate an SH-60L helicopter and deploy naval drones from a rear ramp. Built with stealth characteristics and a high level of automation, it is designed to operate with a reduced crew of 90 personnel, potentially lowering long-term operating costs.

However, the Mogami-class is estimated to be roughly 20 percent more expensive than the German alternative, raising concerns due to Japan’s limited experience in overseas warship construction. While Tokyo has offered to deliver an initial ship directly from its domestic production line, this approach would require an unprecedented level of industrial cooperation outside Japan.

The German option, although less heavily armed, is less costly, features the Saab 9LV combat system already in service with the Australian Navy, and is supported by an established track record in international naval construction. The MEKO A-200, developed by Blohm+Voss, is a modular multi-role frigate with a full-load displacement of 3,400 tonnes and a length of 118 metres. It features CODOG propulsion and can reach speeds of 32 knots. Its armament includes a 127 mm gun, CIWS systems (Phalanx or Sea Zenith), ESSM or Sea Sparrow missiles launched from VLS, Harpoon or RBS-15 anti-ship missiles, lightweight torpedoes, and either a Seahawk or Super Seasprite helicopter. This design has been adopted by several navies, including South Africa, Turkey, Greece, Algeria, and Egypt, and has demonstrated operational flexibility across diverse environments.

The procurement plan calls for a total of 11 frigates, with the first three to be built abroad and the rest at the Henderson shipyard in Western Australia. However, delays in preparing the shipyard and the existing workload at Austal—expected to build two classes of heavy landing craft first—could result in up to six ships being constructed offshore.

No formal preference has been expressed by the Department of Defence, leaving cabinet ministers with broad discretion. One industry source said the outcome was a "coin toss", though the Japanese design is seen as better aligned with the government's schedule and capability goals. Australian Strategic Policy Institute analyst Euan Graham noted that Japan leads “on every significant criterion except price.” Former naval officer Jennifer Parker remarked that while the Japanese ship is clearly more capable, the German design carries lower risk and would be easier to integrate into the current fleet.

This decision comes amid the troubled Hunter-class program, where per-ship costs have surged to $9 billion and the first delivery is not expected before 2032. Seeking to avoid a repeat of such setbacks, the government aims to sign a contract before the end of the year to ensure delivery of the first frigate by 2030. As a result, it has moved away from a traditional open tender process and instead plans to enter final negotiations with a preferred bidder, retaining the option to reopen talks with the alternative if needed.

Initially expected two weeks ago, the final decision has been delayed but is now anticipated this week. It will mark a critical moment in Australia’s naval policy and establish a long-term technological and strategic partnership with one of the two competing nations.