Belarus might just have revealed what Russia’s Oreshnik missile looks like.

Belarus might have revealed Russia’s new Oreshnik missile system after a model appeared in President Alexander Lukashenko’s office, offering the potential first public glimpse of the launcher design.

A model believed to depict the Russian Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile was spotted in Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s office on September 30, 2025, providing the first public view of its design. The display showed a launcher mounted on a 12×12 heavy wheeled chassis resembling the MZKT-79291 platform, a hallmark of advanced Russian road-mobile missile systems.
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A model believed to represent the Russian Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile system appeared in the office of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko during a meeting with Kyrgyz officials, showing a launcher with a 12×12 wheeled chassis resembling the MZKT-79291. (Picture source: Belarus Presidency)

Lukashenko confirmed that Belarus would host the system by the end of the year, following the ratification of Union State agreements that formalized mutual defense commitments and allowed Russian bases on Belarusian territory. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on August 1, 2025, that Oreshnik had entered serial production and that the first unit had been delivered to the armed forces. Preparations for deployment to Belarus are ongoing, with a site already selected and infrastructure work underway to secure and protect the missile system. Minsk has stated that the missiles serve a defensive role in response to NATO deployments, and officials confirmed that Belarusian authorities would retain a say in targeting decisions even as the missiles are integrated into Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces.

A logical candidate for mounting ballistic missiles such as the RS-26/Oreshnik where high payload capacity and mobility are required, the MZKT-79291 is an eight-axle 12×12 heavy tractor intended for road-mobile strategic launchers and other outsized loads, with published gross weights and payload figures placing the vehicle and its launcher train in the roughly 90 tonne class with a payload capacity commonly cited near 60 tonnes. The MZKT-79291 is powered by a YaMZ-854.10 V8 diesel developing about 650 hp coupled to a hydromechanical transmission, giving an on-road top speed of around 45 km/h and an operational road range of around 400–500 km on internal fuel stores.

The chassis uses an independent hydropneumatic suspension, an all-wheel drive configuration, and a six-axle steering to spread weight, reduce ground pressure, and improve cross-country mobility, resulting in a turning circle in the mid-30 metre band depending on configuration. The vehicle, fitted with very large low-pressure tyres (reported to be in the 1600×600 class with on-the-move central tyre inflation and run-flat options), has been repeatedly identified in imagery associated with modern Russian transporter-erector-launchers (TELs), normally operating with a dedicated logistics and support train for maintenance, command and control, and reload tasks, and those requirements shape site preparation and protection measures when the launcher is emplaced.

The Oreshnik missile itself is widely assessed to be derived from the discontinued RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile, redesigned into a shorter-range system. Development has been led by the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology, with major contributions from Titan-Barrikady for the launchers, FCDT Soyuz for propulsion, CNIIAG for guidance systems, OKB Proyektor, and Concern Sozvezdiye. The missile is believed to be a two-stage solid-fueled design with a launch mass of approximately 40 tons and a throw-weight of at least 1,200 kilograms. The estimated operational range varies between 800 and 5,000 kilometers, with some sources suggesting figures up to 5,500 kilometers. The missile is reported to carry multiple independently targetable warheads, typically cited as six, with the capacity to release submunitions or deploy penetration aids.

The configuration may be based on either a traditional post-boost “bus” stage or a more advanced design with individual guidance and propulsion for each warhead, and recovered debris has suggested links to legacy Bulava systems. Russian officials emphasize Oreshnik’s reported performance at hypersonic speeds, with figures ranging from Mach 10 to Mach 11, equal to roughly three kilometers per second during reentry. These velocities reduce interception windows and create challenges for surface-to-air missile defenses. According to statements, the system’s warheads are capable of maneuvering during terminal descent, complicating targeting by defensive systems. Russian leaders claim that no current Western missile defense assets are capable of intercepting Oreshnik, a statement intended to underline the strategic role of the system.

However, Western analysts have argued that accuracy limitations reduce its effectiveness with conventional warheads compared to platforms such as cruise missiles or the Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile, suggesting that its principal utility may lie in nuclear roles or as a tool for deterrence and strategic signaling. The first confirmed use of Oreshnik occurred on November 21, 2024, when Russia launched the missile against Ukraine’s Pivdenmash defense plant in Dnipro. The strike lasted about fifteen minutes from launch, with the missile reportedly achieving Mach 11 and dispersing multiple warheads. According to Russian statements, the missile was armed with non-nuclear payloads, including possible submunitions or decoys. The United States was notified of the launch 30 minutes in advance through established deconfliction channels, and Ukrainian sources reported that the strike caused limited physical damage, with impacts largely confined to the roof of the facility.

Serial numbers on debris indicated connections to components from the Bulava submarine-launched ballistic missile. Western and Ukrainian officials characterized the launch as primarily symbolic, aimed at demonstrating capability and sending a message rather than achieving tactical battlefield results. International reactions to the Dnipro strike were strong. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the attack as a violation of the UN Charter and a significant escalation. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz described it as a provocation and confirmed Germany would not deliver Taurus missiles to Ukraine to avoid further escalation. NATO’s Ukraine Council stated that the strike was intended to intimidate civilians and discourage Western states from continuing support. Independent experts assessed the use of such a costly missile for limited physical results as more consistent with political signaling.

Some noted that the employment of a MIRVed system with conventional payloads is rare due to accuracy issues and high operational costs, raising the risk of misinterpretation by adversaries who may assume a nuclear launch in the event of a crisis. This ambiguity is considered to increase escalation risks in conflict situations. Belarusian and Russian officials have presented deployment as part of broader modernization efforts under the Union State, including prior decisions to station tactical nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory. Lukashenko has argued that Belarus relinquished its nuclear arsenal in the 1990s under the Budapest Memorandum, but that Western security guarantees proved unreliable, justifying the return of advanced missile systems. Russian statements confirm that dozens of tactical nuclear weapons have already been deployed in Belarus, and new doctrine now permits nuclear use in the event of conventional attacks threatening sovereignty.

Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin stated that the deployment of Oreshnik enhances Belarus’s defense capacity as part of the modernization of its armed forces, though he did not specify a deployment timeline beyond confirming that preparations continue. Strategically, the Oreshnik’s deployment to Belarus extends Russian missile coverage deep into Europe, with claims that the system could reach NATO headquarters in Brussels in under 20 minutes. Russian state media emphasized this capability following the Dnipro strike, estimating that Poland could be reached in 11 minutes.

Reports in mid-2025 suggested that Russia is also considering the possible overseas basing of Oreshnik in countries such as Venezuela and Cuba to extend coverage into the Americas. Russian analysts argue that serial production could allow dozens of systems to be produced annually, potentially supplying other states such as Iran, North Korea, or China. Experts caution that the system incorporates primarily legacy technologies, with some estimating that only around 10 percent of its design is new, but acknowledge that its range, payload, and deployment flexibility make it, potentially, a significant addition to Russia’s arsenal.

Written by Jérôme Brahy

Jérôme Brahy is a defense analyst and documentalist at Army Recognition. He specializes in naval modernization, aviation, drones, armored vehicles, and artillery, with a focus on strategic developments in the United States, China, Ukraine, Russia, Türkiye, and Belgium. His analyses go beyond the facts, providing context, identifying key actors, and explaining why defense news matters on a global scale.