Alert: Russo-Belarusian Zapad 2025 Drill With Oreshnik Hypersonic Missile Raises Concerns of Offensive Tactics.

On August 13, 2025, Reuters reported that the upcoming joint military exercises between Russia and Belarus, known as Zapad-2025, will include drills simulating the use of nuclear weapons and the Russian-made intermediate-range hypersonic Oreshnik missile. Announced by Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin, the inclusion of such strategic systems comes just days before a scheduled meeting in Alaska between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a possible end to the war in Ukraine. This development is highly relevant as it signals a significant escalation in the scale and complexity of Russian-Belarusian military coordination, raising concerns among NATO members bordering Belarus about the real intentions behind these maneuvers.
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From a strategic standpoint, the presence of the Oreshnik missile system in Zapad-2025 goes beyond routine military training. It signals that Russia and Belarus are refining nuclear delivery procedures and testing intermediate-range strike capabilities in a theater-wide operational context (Picture source: Russian MoD)

The Oreshnik missile, officially classified as an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) with hypersonic capabilities, has a reported range of over 3,000 kilometers and can carry either conventional or nuclear warheads. Capable of reaching speeds of around Mach 10, approximately 12,300 km/h, with some intelligence assessments suggesting up to Mach 11 in its terminal phase, the system combines extreme velocity with advanced terminal maneuvering capabilities, making it a challenging target for existing NATO air and missile defense systems such as the Patriot PAC-3, SAMP/T, or NASAMS. First unveiled after being used in combat against Ukraine in November 2024 to strike Dnipro, the missile is said to have entered serial production earlier this year according to the Kremlin. Its flight profile reportedly involves a depressed trajectory with unpredictable re-entry maneuvers, which significantly reduces the interception window. While Ukraine has upgraded its air defense network with Western-supplied systems, intercepting the Oreshnik’s warheads remains theoretically possible only under optimal detection and engagement conditions.

Russia’s decision to integrate this missile into Zapad-2025 scenarios suggests both a test of its operational readiness and a demonstration of capability aimed at deterring NATO. From a strategic standpoint, the presence of the Oreshnik in Zapad-2025 goes beyond routine military training. It signals that Russia and Belarus are refining nuclear delivery procedures and testing intermediate-range strike capabilities in a theater-wide operational context. The timing is notable: previous Zapad drills, such as in 2021, served as a prelude to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with Russian forces remaining in Belarus after the exercises to launch attacks in February 2022.

The geopolitical implications are significant, if Zapad-2025 is used to position forces and assets for a renewed offensive, it could mark the start of a new campaign in Ukraine, possibly using different tactics, such as rapid strategic strikes with hypersonic systems to overwhelm defenses before ground maneuvers. Moreover, the missile’s deployment in drills so close to NATO borders will likely be perceived in Warsaw, Vilnius, and Riga as a deliberate provocation, reinforcing calls for expanded missile defense coverage in Eastern Europe.

Zapad-2025, officially scheduled for September 12–16 in Belarus, is officially framed as defensive, yet the scale, potentially up to 150,000 troops according to NATO estimates, and the integration of strategic strike systems make it a high-stakes event. While Belarus insists it is responding to NATO exercises in Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, the combination of nuclear planning drills and hypersonic missile deployment rehearsals represents an unmistakable escalation in regional security tensions. If Russia and Belarus are indeed preparing for operational scenarios involving intermediate-range nuclear-capable missiles, the margin for miscalculation becomes dangerously narrow, with consequences that could extend far beyond Ukraine’s borders.