Poland and Baltic states expand submarine and attack boat fleets to deter Russia in Baltic Sea.

On June 12, 2025, Poland and the Baltic states officially accelerated submarine and attack boat procurement programs to enhance their naval capabilities in the face of growing Russian assertiveness in the Baltic Sea. As tensions rise in the region, Warsaw seeks to modernize its aging underwater fleet under the Orka program, while Lithuania and Latvia have signed contracts for advanced multipurpose combat boats. The strategic proximity of Kaliningrad, the militarization of Russia’s western exclave, and increased naval activity underscore the urgency of these initiatives. These parallel efforts represent a significant turn in regional defense posturing and NATO cohesion on Europe’s northeastern flank.

Follow Army Recognition on Google News at this link

As Russian activities continue to destabilize the Baltic security environment, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia are not only upgrading their fleets but redefining their maritime posture (Picture source: Polish MoD)

Poland’s Orka program aims to replace its outdated Soviet-era ORP Orzeł, the last operational Kilo-class submarine in the Polish Navy. With a planned procurement of three to four new submarines by the end of 2025, Warsaw has committed to introducing modern, multipurpose platforms equipped with air-independent propulsion (AIP) and capable of launching cruise missiles. These submarines are designed to operate in the complex littoral environment of the Baltic Sea, with stealth, endurance, and land-attack capabilities as core requirements. Eleven shipbuilders participated in market consultations, including Naval Group (France), TKMS (Germany), Fincantieri (Italy), Saab (Sweden), Navantia (Spain), Hanwha Ocean and Hyundai (South Korea), and Babcock (UK). According to the Polish Ministry of Defense, offers from Germany, Sweden, and Italy currently lead the race, though negotiations with South Korea remain active.

One of the standout proposals comes from South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean, offering three KSS-III Batch-II submarines with significant local industrial participation, training packages, and long-term operational independence. This proposal is part of Seoul’s broader strategy to expand its defense exports to Europe. Despite past delays, Polish authorities have reaffirmed their intent to sign a contract before the end of 2025. The program’s budget, while undisclosed, is expected to exceed €3 billion given the platform requirements and lifecycle support involved. The Orka submarines will serve both as a deterrent and as a strategic instrument for intelligence, surveillance, and denial operations in the Baltic, directly countering Russian naval deployments from Kaliningrad.

Simultaneously, Lithuania and Latvia have launched the Common Future Multipurpose Attack Craft (CFMAC) program in partnership with Finnish shipbuilder Marine Alutech. The program’s first phase involves the delivery of advanced Watercat M18 fast attack boats. Lithuania’s acquisition, valued at €22 million, includes two units equipped with SPIKE NLOS launchers (32 km range) and remote-controlled heavy machine guns. These vessels, scheduled to enter service by 2026, are specifically engineered for high-speed littoral operations in areas like the Curonian Lagoon. The Watercat M18s, powered by twin Scania engines with waterjets, reach up to 35 knots and operate in waters too shallow for conventional naval assets. Their compact design enables missions ranging from minelaying to special operations and coastal reconnaissance, addressing hybrid threats such as sabotage teams and drone swarms.

For the Baltic states, this investment is more than a mere equipment upgrade, it is a recalibration of naval doctrine in a contested environment. With Kaliningrad serving as a forward-operating hub for Russia’s Baltic Fleet, these acquisitions aim to enhance asymmetric capabilities that can delay or disrupt larger Russian formations. Moreover, NATO interoperability is central to these initiatives: the new submarines and attack boats will contribute to joint task groups, bolster maritime situational awareness, and secure key infrastructure including LNG terminals and offshore wind farms. As part of this modernization drive, Lithuania also plans to acquire multirole offshore patrol vessels between 2030 and 2037, further broadening its maritime toolkit.

The strategic implications are multilayered. Militarily, the new submarines and fast boats reinforce local deterrence while fitting into NATO’s broader plans for maritime domain awareness in the High North and Baltic Sea. Geopolitically, they signal a clear alignment with the alliance’s eastern agenda, particularly in the wake of Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO accession. Economically, these defense deals offer transfer-of-technology incentives and opportunities for domestic industry involvement in both Poland and the Baltic states, embedding long-term logistical and maintenance frameworks within national economies.

As Russian activities continue to destabilize the Baltic security environment, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia are not only upgrading their fleets but redefining their maritime posture. These efforts are not isolated procurements but a coordinated regional shift toward resilience, rapid response, and forward defense. With contracts expected to be signed within the year and first deliveries scheduled before 2027, the Baltic Sea is set to become a focal point of European naval transformation.