Portugal reconsiders US F-35 fighter jets against European alternatives for $5 billion F-16 replacement.

Portuguese Foreign Minister Paulo Rangel confirmed in Lisbon that the government is seriously evaluating the Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning II alongside the Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault Rafale, and Saab Gripen E to replace its fleet of 28 upgraded F-16M fighters. Speaking alongside U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Rangel noted that the multibillion-euro modernization program remains open to competitive proposals. The upcoming Military Programming Law will establish the formal procurement timeline and financial framework for the acquisition.

On October 8, 2026, Portuguese Foreign Minister Paulo Rangel confirmed that Portugal is seriously considering the F-35 to replace its F-16 fleet, while U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio requested a fair opportunity to submit a competitive proposal. (Picture source: US DoD)

On October 8, 2026, Portuguese Foreign Minister Paulo Rangel confirmed that Portugal is seriously considering the F-35A Lightning II as a possible successor to its F-16M fighters, reopening the prospect of a major American fighter acquisition after Lisbon questioned the reliability of long-term U.S. defense commitments in March 2025. Speaking alongside U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Lisbon, Rangel confirmed that the F-35 remains under consideration alongside the Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault Rafale, and Saab Gripen E. The replacement requirement concerns 28 upgraded F-16M fighters, with a potential purchase of 27 to 28 aircraft valued at €5 billion, making it one of Portugal's principal planned military modernization investments.

Rubio requested an opportunity for Lockheed Martin to submit a competitive offer and emphasized the advantages of operating the same fighter as the U.S. Air Force and several NATO allies. Rangel maintained that the decision rests with the Portuguese government and Ministry of Defense, rather than the Foreign Ministry alone. No formal competition has begun, and the revised Military Programming Law expected before December 31, 2026, could establish the program's financing. Portugal originally acquired 45 F-16A/B Block 15 fighters through Peace Atlantis I and II, beginning with 20 aircraft delivered from 1994. Its current fleet comprises 28 upgraded F-16M fighters, although a separate October 2026 inventory identifies 25 operational aircraft, including 21 F-16AMs and four F-16BMs.

Related topic: Portugal approaches Saab to purchase Gripen fighter jets following withdrawal from US F-35 program

Operating from Monte Real Air Base, BA5, these fighters maintain national quick-reaction alert and have supported NATO air policing missions in Lithuania, Iceland, Romania, and Poland. The Portuguese Air Force's November 2023 modernization plan identified the F-35A as the intended replacement, and General João Cartaxo Alves confirmed preparations for its introduction in April 2024, before Defense Minister Nuno Melo reopened consideration of European alternatives on March 13, 2025. Prime Minister Luís Montenegro further confirmed on April 22 that no final choice had been made. Replacing 28 fighters with 27 or 28 would preserve nominal fleet strength. Still, it would represent only 62.2% of the original F-16 fleet, leaving Portugal to coordinate F-16 withdrawals, pilot conversion, maintenance training, and NATO commitments without a substantial increase in available aircraft.

The F-35A would change the Portuguese Air Force's operational capabilities principally through low-observable penetration, integrated sensor fusion, and the ability to engage targets while carrying weapons internally, absent from Portugal's F-16M fleet. Its F135-PW-100 engine generates 191 kN of thrust, supporting speeds of up to Mach 1.6, for a maximum takeoff weight of 31,800 kg, 8,280 kg of internal fuel, and a combat radius exceeding 1,090 km under specified conditions. Maximum weapons capacity reaches 8,160 kg, with four AIM-120 missiles in the standard internal air-to-air configuration and six planned through the Sidekick modification. The AN/APG-81 AESA radar, AN/AAQ-37 infrared sensors, AN/AAQ-40 targeting system, and AN/ASQ-239 electronic warfare suite also provide radar, infrared, and electronic threat information through integrated cockpit displays.

On June 11, 2026, Lockheed Martin executive Rob Weitzman addressed Portuguese concerns about maintenance restrictions and the possibility of remote disabling, rejecting the existence of a country-specific shutdown mechanism. However, Portuguese maintenance access would not confer independent authority over software modifications or weapons certification, despite European manufacturers accounting for more than 25% of each F-35's value globally. The Eurofighter Typhoon and Dassault Rafale offer two European twin-engine alternatives with different payload capacities and European production arrangements. The Typhoon's two EJ200 engines generate 180 kN combined thrust, supporting Mach 2, a 23,500 kg maximum takeoff weight, and 13 external weapons stations compatible with Meteor, AMRAAM, IRIS-T, and precision-guided munitions.

Depending on the selected production configuration, Portugal could obtain the Captor-E AESA radar, whose mechanically repositionable antenna extends its field of regard beyond that of a fixed-array installation. On September 24, 2026, Airbus confirmed plans to submit an unsolicited Portuguese proposal by late October or early November, including financing and industrial cooperation. For its part, Dassault already submitted its Rafale proposal in July 2026. Powered by two M88 engines generating 150 kN combined thrust, the Rafale reaches Mach 1.8, has a 24,500 kg maximum takeoff weight, and carries up to 9,500 kg of external stores across 14 hardpoints. Its RBE2 AESA radar, SPECTRA electronic warfare suite, Meteor, MICA, and AASM weapons support air defense and strike operations. Both fighters use external weapons carriage, but their twin-engine arrangements also create different maintenance and propulsion-support requirements, while Portuguese acquisition packages remain undefined. 

Saab's Gripen E differs from the three other candidates through its single-engine configuration, maintenance architecture, and proposed connection to Portuguese aerospace manufacturing. The Gripen E uses one General Electric F414G engine generating 98 kN, 20% more thrust than the earlier Gripen C/D's F404, while redesigned fuel arrangements increase internal capacity by 40%. Its published combat radius exceeds 1,500 km under specified conditions. The aircraft incorporates the Raven ES-05 AESA radar, Skyward-G infrared sensor, EWS-39 electronic warfare suite, and ten weapons stations compatible with Meteor, IRIS-T, GBU-39, and RBS-15 missiles. The aircraft's modular maintenance system allows technicians to replace line-replaceable units at operating bases, although actual turnaround times would depend on Portuguese maintenance personnel, spare-parts holdings, and support contracts. Saab is pursuing a production capacity of up to 36 Gripen E/Fs annually, supported by orders from Sweden, Brazil, Thailand, and Colombia.

However, the American-manufactured F414G engine means that a Gripen acquisition would not eliminate U.S. export-control exposure, particularly for engine-related transfers, components, and support arrangements. Saab's Portuguese industrial proposal could nevertheless involve OGMA at Alverca, which is controlled by Embraer and already connected to Brazil's Gripen production program. On March 5, 2026, Saab executive Daniel Boestad confirmed the possibility of Portuguese component manufacturing. Embraer assembles Gripen aircraft at Gavião Peixoto, while Saab's São Bernardo do Campo factory produces fuselage sections, tail cones, and air brakes. A Brazilian-manufactured rear fuselage section measures 1.90 m wide, 1.20 m high, and 2.50 m long and contains more than 750 aluminum, titanium, and composite components.

OGMA could potentially manufacture similar aerostructures for Swedish or Brazilian assembly, extending Portuguese participation beyond maintenance. Nevertheless, no Portuguese manufacturing volume, investment amount, employment commitment, technology-transfer package, or guaranteed production allocation has been agreed or disclosed to date. The projected €5 billion value for the F-16 replacement program implies an expenditure of €178.6 million per aircraft for 28 fighters or €185.2 million for 27, including costs beyond aircraft procurement. By comparison, the estimated F-35A Lots 18 and 19 flyaway price is $92 million, putting 28 aircraft at $2.576 billion before Portuguese-specific weapons, infrastructure, training, and support expenses. The F135 engine alone accounts for $20.4 million (22.2%) of that flyaway price. No equivalent Portuguese package prices have been established for the Typhoon, Rafale, or Gripen E, preventing a direct comparison of total acquisition costs.

Portugal's financing capacity is also changing under NATO commitments. Rangel confirmed that defense expenditure increased from 1.6% of GDP to 2% in 2025, a 25% relative increase, while NATO's 2035 framework establishes a combined 5% objective, comprising 3.5% for core defense plus 1.5% for related investments. The fighter acquisition must therefore be financed alongside other modernization programs, with annual payments and sustainment commitments still undetermined. The principal operational constraint is that Portugal intends to replace its fighter fleet with fewer than 30 fighters, despite sustaining national air defense and NATO deployments. For instance, its April 1 to July 31, 2026, Baltic air policing deployment involved four F-16Ms and up to 95 personnel, generating more than 480 flying hours, including 100 training hours, and over 25 interception missions.

A four-aircraft NATO deployment would absorb 20% of its future fighter force with 20 mission-capable jets, leaving 16 for national interception duties, training, additional deployments, and operational reserves. A six-aircraft deployment would consume 30%, leaving 14, while further aircraft could become unavailable through national alert duties, conversion training, inspections, component failures, or scheduled maintenance. Consequently, for Portugal, the F-35 offers stealth operations and integrated sensors, Typhoon and Rafale provide twin-engine European alternatives, and the Gripen E offers a different maintenance and industrial arrangement. However, the decisive procurement measures will be aircraft availability, annual flying hours, spare-engine inventories, weapons stocks, maintenance turnaround, and sustained sortie generation, rather than the nominal number of fighters purchased.

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Written by Jérôme Brahy

Jérôme Brahy is a defense analyst and documentalist at Army Recognition. He specializes in naval modernization, aviation, drones, armored vehicles, and artillery, with a focus on strategic developments in the United States, China, Ukraine, Russia, South Korea, Türkiye, and Belgium. His analyses go beyond the facts, providing context, identifying key actors, and explaining why defense news matters on a global scale.