Belgium to transfer 10 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine to counter Russia's fastest jet-powered drones.

On October 15, 2026, Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever announced an expanded defense package pledging 10 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine by December 31, 2026, increasing Belgium's previous commitment following bilateral discussions with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the European summit in Brussels. The strategic acceleration directly addresses Russia's increased deployment of high-speed, jet-powered Geran drones, which compress detection intervals and evade conventional propeller-based UAV interceptors. To preserve finite inventories of advanced AIM-9 and AIM-120 missiles, the transfer is accompanied by negotiations to supply 20 mm Vulcan cannon ammunition manufactured by FN Herstal for cost-effective close-range aerial interceptions.

Belgian F-16s will help Ukraine intercept Russia’s fastest jet-powered Geran drones, flying at up to 600 km/h, by using their speed of Mach 2.05 and 20 mm cannons against targets that many Ukrainian interceptor drones cannot overtake. (Picture source: Belgian Air Force)

On October 15, 2026, Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever announced that Belgium would transfer 10 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine by December 31, increasing the country's previous pledge of seven F-16s by the end of 2026, comprising three combat-capable fighters and four intended for spare parts. Following talks with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the European summit in Brussels, De Wever linked the deliveries to Russia's increasing use of jet-powered Geran drones, which are becoming more difficult for Ukrainian interceptor UAVs to engage. Belgium also discussed supplying 20 mm rounds manufactured by FN Herstal for the F-16's M61A1 Vulcan cannon, as Ukraine seeks to preserve its AIM-9 Sidewinder and AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles.

The delivery schedule remains tied to Belgium's transition to the F-35A, three of which arrived at Florennes on September 25, increasing the Belgian-based fleet to seven, while eight others remain in the United States for pilot training. Belgium's broader transfer plan covers 53 F-16s through 2029, compared with its original commitment of 30 by 2028. However, De Wever did not specify how many of the newly promised aircraft would be operational, nor whether the additional three would be deducted from future allocations. Belgium purchased 160 F-16s between 1979 and 1991, including 136 F-16As and 24 F-16Bs, leaving its youngest airframes 35 years old in 2026. The later F-16AM/BM Mid-Life Update (MLU) introduced a Modular Mission Computer occupying 42% less space, weighing 55% less, and consuming 37% less power, while the AN/APG-66(V)2 radar gained 25% in detection and tracking range and 40% in reliability.

Related topic: Belgium to deliver first F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine by end of 2026 as Russian air attacks intensify

The radar can track 10 targets and support AIM-120 engagements against six under compatible configurations, supplemented by Link 16, GPS, APX-113 identification equipment with a nominal 185 km range, and helmet-mounted cueing compatibility. Belgian weapons integration covers AIM-9, AIM-120 and AGM-65 missiles, GBU-10/12/24 laser-guided bombs and GBU-31 JDAMs, although the equipment accompanying Ukrainian transfers remains unspecified. The principal limitation is that Belgium applies an 8,000-flight-hour retirement threshold, reached by F-16 FA-95 on September 8, 2023, after nearly 6,500 flights. The three fighters initially allocated for Ukrainian combat operations are approaching that limit, making remaining certified flight hours more important than their upgraded avionics when determining how intensively Ukraine can employ them. 

As explained at the start, Russia's jet-powered Geran drones are narrowing the performance margin available to Ukrainian interceptors. The Geran-3, derived from the Iranian Shahed-238, reaches 300 km/h, the Geran-4 reaches 350 km/h, and the Geran-5 can reach 500 km/h, with faster variants approaching 600 km/h. At 500 km/h, a Geran-5 covers 50 km in six minutes, compared with 15 minutes for a propeller-driven drone flying at 200 km/h, reducing the interval available for detection, interception and a second engagement by nine minutes. Ukrainian interceptors currently traveling at 460 to 500 km/h subsequently cannot overtake a Geran-5 in straight pursuit, whereas a 500 km/h interceptor closes on a Geran-4 at 2.5 km per minute.

Russian drones also incorporate MESH communications modems costing an estimated $3,500, enabling communications relay and operator-controlled targeting updates against moving vehicles. Ukrainian intelligence estimates Russia's Geran-4 and Geran-5 manufacturing capacity at 3,000 per month, equivalent to 100 per day, although this does not establish actual launch rates. With a top speed of Mach 2.05 (2,500 km/h), Belgian F-16s can engage these faster targets, but every interception consumes flight hours and maintenance capacity needed for cruise missile interception or operations against Russian tactical aircraft. Ukraine's F-16 fleet has destroyed more than 3,150 aerial targets and conducted more than 650 ground strikes since entering service in August 2024, according to figures announced by Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Anatolii Kryvonozhko on September 29.

The interceptions include 2,500 UAVs and 666 cruise missiles, equivalent to 3.75 drones for every cruise missile and monthly averages of 121 aerial interceptions and 25 ground strikes. During Russia's September 29 attack, Ukraine destroyed 18 of 29 jet-powered drones, an interception rate of 62.1%, while more than 100 UAVs had been launched by 18:00. Ukrainian F-16s have also engaged Russian fighters: on July 21, U.S. General Dan Caine confirmed an F-16 air-to-air victory associated with the July 8 destruction of a Su-35S. That Russian fighter carries an Irbis-E radar, two AL-41F1S engines producing 142 kN each with afterburner, and R-77-1 and R-37M missiles, the latter capable of engagements beyond 200 km. The Ukrainian missile type and engagement distance remain undisclosed, but the engagement illustrates how Ukraine's F-16 fleet must support three competing missions: drone and cruise missile interception, operations against Russian fighters, and strikes against ground targets. 

The M61A1 Vulcan cannon is becoming an important part of Ukraine's F-16 ammunition requirements because it offers a cheaper alternative to AIM-9 and AIM-120 missiles against Russian drones, but Ukraine's ammunition requirements are substantial. The six-barrel 20 × 102 mm weapon carries 511 rounds and fires up to 6,000 rounds per minute, equivalent to 100 rounds per second. Ukrainian estimates indicate an expenditure of 150 rounds per successful drone interception, or 1.5 seconds of firing, allowing three such engagements per load with 61 rounds remaining. At a projected consumption of 10,000 rounds daily, Ukraine would need 300,000 rounds monthly; a 30,000-round shipment would therefore cover three days of consumption, while 100,000 rounds would cover 10 days. Ukraine began negotiating additional supplies with European manufacturers in September, including possible involvement by FN Herstal.

De Wever also confirmed further ammunition discussions on October 15 without announcing quantities, with Spain and Poland also involved in similar replenishment efforts. Ukraine is attempting to reduce the reliance on F-16s against jet-powered Gerans by developing faster interceptor UAVs, with 20 domestic manufacturers participating in the effort. Fourteen companies are conducting flight tests, six have successfully intercepted jet-powered targets, three are developing systems considered particularly promising, and two models, including the Predator and Khyzhak, have completed military codification. Current interceptors reach 460 to 500 km/h, while some manufacturers are pursuing speeds of 700 km/h, providing only a 100 km/h closing-speed advantage against a Geran traveling at 600 km/h.

At that relative speed, an interceptor launched 10 km behind its target would require six minutes to close the distance, excluding maneuvering and acceleration. One manufacturer expects to produce 400 interceptors by late October, but required quantities are not anticipated before late November. At one interceptor per target, 400 units would cover four days of launches at Russia's estimated 100-drone daily manufacturing capacity, assuming production translated directly into launches. Future Russian drones potentially reaching 800-900 km/h would again create a performance gap even for the faster Ukrainian interceptor designs, prolonging demand for fighter-based interception. Russia's jet-powered drones increasingly threaten Ukrainian military logistics because higher speeds and operator-controlled targeting enable faster attacks against moving vehicles and infrastructure beyond the front line.

Russia launched 4,951 attack drones in July 2026, with Ukraine reporting an 87% interception rate, but the growing proportion of jet-powered Gerans compresses the interval available for radar detection, command decisions, interceptor launch and a possible second engagement, particularly when several targets approach from different directions. MESH communications links allow targeting updates during flight, increasing the threat to locomotives, railway traffic and road transport moving ammunition, fuel and personnel more than 100 km behind Ukrainian positions. Attacks against locomotives can interrupt transport even when the railway tracks remain intact, while attacks on electrical substations can affect both civilian power distribution and railway operations.

Jet-powered drones have also been used against urban areas, including the August 21 attack involving two Shahed-type drones against a shopping center in Kryvyi Rih that killed 15 people and injured 130. Ukrainian estimates place jet-powered drones at 40% of Russian attack UAVs in some operations and above 60% along certain axes. Their increasing use forces Ukraine to divert F-16s from intercepting cruise missiles, deterring Russian tactical aviation, and conducting ground strikes, consuming finite aircraft flight hours even when the drones are destroyed. Belgium's revised transfer commitment must therefore ultimately be assessed against the structural condition of the airframes and the maintenance capacity available to keep them flying.

The initial allocation included three airworthy fighters approaching Belgium's retirement threshold and four non-flying aircraft for spare engines, landing gear, avionics and hydraulic components. On October 14, Belgian Defense Minister Theo Francken confirmed that transferring the three operational aircraft required U.S. and French third-party authorizations, including French approval relating to electronic warfare equipment. Belgium has also worked with Ukraine on F-16 maintenance since February 2025, while Sabena Aerospace Engineering received a $235 million U.S. maintenance and logistics contract.

Additionally, Poland's WZL-2 facility is being considered for additional servicing. Belgium's previous schedule envisaged seven aircraft in 2026, five in 2027, 14 in 2028 and 27 in 2029, placing 50.9% of the 53-aircraft plan in its final year. Whether the new 10-aircraft commitment changes those later allocations remains unknown, as does the remaining certified flight time of the F-16s involved. The operational outcome will depend on how many fighters can generate sorties, how many drones they intercept, and how much maintenance and ammunition each interception requires.

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Written by Jérôme Brahy

Jérôme Brahy is a defense analyst and documentalist at Army Recognition. He specializes in naval modernization, aviation, drones, armored vehicles, and artillery, with a focus on strategic developments in the United States, China, Ukraine, Russia, South Korea, Türkiye, and Belgium. His analyses go beyond the facts, providing context, identifying key actors, and explaining why defense news matters on a global scale.